Convexity can be seen as explosive success that grows exponentially, rather than linearly. This  is why a popstar’s new album will sell far more albums than a different artist or less fame but arguably greater talent. Success, in terms of the number of sales, or number of fans, is not a consequence of great talent but popularity. The bad news is that popularity can often be attributed to randomness; the exact causes for why one brand, or design, is far preferred over another is not precisely known. There is also a great tendency for humans to stick with known or “trusted” brands, which explains why certain brands can continue to grow even with bad products. The good news is that the rise of the internet and digital media is now far easier for anyone to promote themselves.

It is very timely that Wired published an article today which decries the rise of ebooks. Ok, so there is definitely a downside to digital media: piracy is an issue and it does seem like libraries are not treated fairly. That said, the rise of digital media is not going to bring more problems than solutions that it provides. The cat is out of the bag. The horse has bolted from the stable. Digital media artists need to confront and prosper from this new reality rather than become a victim to it.

How does a creative artist prosper from this new digital reality? By understanding how the digital age works,  how the upcoming generation behaves, and most importantly: convexity. When I say new I mean this relative to the old forms of publishing in hard formats. Myspace has been around for years and provided bands to promote their music globally. In theory, a band can record a piece of music and then send it to millions of people around the world in the same day. That is just simply impossible with the old forms of publishing, but it is reality for digital media.

This isn’t a secret, at all. Many content creators have embraced digital content. It has decrease many barriers to entry and provided a bridge between (say) writers and readers than have otherwise not existed. However, with such low barriers to entry there is a downside in the form of piracy. The downside is that your content is copied many times without your consent and without payment or credit. The upside, yes there is an upside, is that your content has possibly been shared with millions. Popularity (fame) is never a guarantee of vast wealth. This is reality, but there is a way to benefit from it rather than become a victim to it.

Accept that piracy can happen, although in the early stages of your career it might not, but understand that this is in credit  to your popularity rather than a discredit to your popularity. Folks don’t pirate Breaking Bad or the great works of GRR Martin because they hate it, but precisely the opposite. Does this represent lost revenue (sales) ? Sure, it might be lost revenue but it also allows for a opens up a far greater market. Does this mean that the artist may not be able to live off their creation? Sure, that’s also true but that has always been true, even before the internet began it was never a guaranteed certainty than an artist could ever live off the royalties of their own work. This line of argument is a red herring (imHo).

Let’s go back to my statement about MySpace: an musician can upload a piece of music and share it with millionns (heck, billions!) in the same day. To re-iterate a separate previous statement: this was impossible in the old days of non-digital publishing. This makes life hard for the old forms of copyright to still be useful or even meaningful.

In the days of underground music, bands would copy of their own material (tape to tape) and then given it away for free or exchange for things like alcohol. The bands wished to share their music, their creations, their passions, rather than try make money from it. With the advent of the internet underground music no longer exists. A downside to this is that everyone gets “published”, even the bad stuff. The upside is that everyone has the opportunity to get published.

For some this is the opportunity they need to get their material out to a wider any audience. The internet is in many ways an equaliser for content creators, they now have the possibility to publish their work but the internet has also reinforced some previous “problems”: people still stick with trusted brands. People buy from brands that consistently provide the content they desire.

A demonstration: JK Rowling published a book under a different name, but the sales were rather luke warm. The apple cart is toppled, everyone finds out that the book was written by JK and sales go through the roof. What changed? The content was exactly the same, so there was no change in quality, or design, but the brand changed. The brand that is JK Rowling was suddenly attached to the work and sales changed overnight. This, ladies and gentleman, is convexity.

Sales growth exploded in a completely unpredicted and non-linear way. These are the hall marks convexity. It is possible to identify sources of convexity but it is generally impossible to predict the outcome. Content creators have to face this reality and expose themselves in a way to capture the success from convex situations rather than become a victim to it.

With a nod to Nassim Taleb, author of Fooled by Randomness, the Black Swan, and Antifragile, we can identify possible professions and situations where convexity exists. A baker makes bread but they have to make every single that they sell. One sale represents one unit of work. This process doesn’t scale so well. Digital content on the other hand is created once, perhaps it takes a year to write the new best-seller, but it can be copied and sold millions of times in a day. One sale does not represent one unit of work.

The total number of sales from your latest ebook is hard to predict, success is never guaranteed, even in the digital world, but you can at least be sure that you are in a favourable regime for explosive growth.